Results-Oriented Programming in the Field of SSG/R

A theory of change (ToC) is a statement that explains why we think certain actions will produce outputs leading to the desired change in a given context. It outlines all the cause-and-effect relationships between the elements in the result chain and provides the narrative that explains the logic of the intervention applied.

A ToC takes the logframe matrix one step further in that it offers a representation of the results chain, accompanied by a narrative to map and explain the various connections between each level of results. It acknowledges the non-linear nature of a results chain and the fact that there may be multiple strands that lead to a single result. As such, a ToC is particularly useful in maintaining the focus on long-term results and the changes required to achieve them. Moreover, it can help in understanding the complexity of SSG/R interventions, where multiple projects may be required to contribute to a single programme objective. A ToC is also particularly useful in identifying ways that activities in different OSCE dimensions can contribute to a common overarching objective. Description of theories of changes should be as comprehensive as possible and gender-sensitive.

To develop a ToC, OSCE staff should plan towards the intended objective and identify the kind of change needed for it to be realized. They should then plan for OSCE support by moving backwards along the results chain, determining the changes that need to be made for each result level to be attained. They should also reflect on the underlying assumptions of the theory of change; for each result, they should ask what assumptions need to be fulfilled for the next result to be achieved.