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<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 20pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Protecting Critical Energy Infrastructure:<br/>From Risk Analysis to Risk Management</p>
<p><center><img width="75%" src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/0fe5796b3d40dfb2857047938763430c/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Conclusion_Img1.jpg" alt="Get Alt Text"/></center></p>
<p>Ensuring the protection and resilience of critical energy infrastructure require understanding their operating environment and the hazards they may face. Critical energy infrastructure are inherently complex systems combining aging infrastructure and new technologies over large transnational geographic areas to produce, generate, transport, distribute and supply various types of energy. This complexity is increased by interdependencies between critical energy infrastructure and other critical infrastructure systems, constituting a system-of-systems in equilibrium with an ever-changing operating environment. Analyzes should consider these different levels of complexity to assess systemic risks and understand the hazard landscape, integrating hazards already encountered in the past and emerging hazards, existing vulnerabilities and resilience measures, and the consequences for critical energy infrastructure and the communities they serve.</p>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center; font-weight: bold !important; font-variant: small-caps" colspan="1">In the absence of risk analysis, decision makers will still make decisions,<br/> but will not benefit from the advantages that a risk analysis can provide.</td>
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<p>The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Virtual Competency and Training Centre on the Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection offers a series of learning modules to support energy security stakeholders from the public and private sector, academia, and civil society in understanding the basic concepts of risk analysis applied to critical infrastructure. This introductory course clarifies general concepts underlying effective risk analysis processes required to inform security and resilience policies and governance strategies. It is organized in five e-learning modules.</p>
<ul>
<li><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Module 1</span> introduces the basic concepts of risk analysis.</li>
<li><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Module 2</span> provides a general overview of critical infrastructure systems.</li>
<li><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Module 3</span> presents the basic concepts of critical infrastructure dependencies analysis.</li>
<li><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Module 4</span> introduces the basic concepts of information security and cybersecurity.</li>
<li><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Module 5</span> presents advanced concepts of risk analysis and fundamentals of risk management.</li>
</ul>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center; font-weight: bold !important; font-variant: small-caps" colspan="1">Critical thinking is vital for conducting effective risk analysis.</td>
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<p>The following sections present general summaries of the five training modules to remind some important notions before the final test that closes this course.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 20pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Introduction to Risk Analysis <br/>Module 1 Summary</p>
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<td style="vertical-align: middle; text-align:center; border: 0px; width: 20%" colspan="1"><img src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/fe2896929f5f7b341c872c9ed8eed611/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod3_Img5.png" alt="Get Alt Text" /></td>
<td style="border: 0px;" colspan="1">A <span style="font-weight: bold !important; color: #003478;">Risk</span> is <i><span style="color: #003478;">"the potential for an unwanted outcome resulting from an incident, event, or occurrence, as determined by its likelihood and the associated consequences."<a href="https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/dhs-risk-lexicon-2010_0.pdf" target="[object Object]"><span style="color: #003478;"> (DHS, 2010)</span></a></span></i>.<br/><br/>A risk can be defined as a function of four components presented in the table below. </td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Hazard</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">It is important to differentiate between hazards and threats.<br/><br/>A <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Hazard</span> is <i><span style="color: #003478;">"a natural or manmade occurrence, individual, entity, or action that has or indicates the potential to harm life, information, operations, the environment, and/or property"</span></i><a href="https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/dhs-risk-lexicon-2010_0.pdf" target="[object Object]"><span style="color: #003478;"> (DHS, 2010).</span></a> Hazards include natural, technological, organizational, behavioral, ad social events.<br/><br/> A <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;"> Threat </span><i><span style="color: #003478;">"differs from a hazard in that a threat is directed at an entity, asset, system, network, or geographic area, while a hazard is not directed. Therefore, a threat is an intentional hazard"</span></i><a href="https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/dhs-risk-lexicon-2010_0.pdf" target="[object Object]"><span style="color: #003478;"> (DHS, 2010).</span></a> Threats include elements such as cyberattacks, sabotages, thefts, or terrorism.<br/><br/>Hazard analysis differs depending on whether we consider an unintentional or an intentional event. Threat/Hazard Analysis seeks to define the likelihood of an incident or disturbing event.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Vulnerability</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px; ;">A <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Vulnerability</span> is <i><span style="color: #003478;">"a physical feature or operational attribute that renders an entity open to exploitation or susceptible to a given hazard"</span></i><a href="https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/dhs-risk-lexicon-2010_0.pdf" target="[object Object]"><span style="color: #003478;"> (DHS, 2010).</span></a>Vulnerabilities include four categories: physical, technical, operational, and organizational vulnerabilities.<br/><br/>A vulnerability analysis helps critical infrastructure owners and operators to allocate resources to protect their most important infrastructure assets and systems.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Resilience</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;"><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Resilience</span> is the <i><span style="color: #003478;">"ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. Resilience includes the ability to withstand and recover from deliberate attacks, accidents, or naturally occurring threats or incidents"</span></i><a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/02/12/presidential-policy-directive-critical-infrastructure-security-and-resil" target="[object Object]"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; color: #003478;"> (White House, 2013).</span></a> Resilience can be characterized with the traditional phases of emergency management: preparedness, mitigation measures, response capabilities, and recovery mechanisms.<br/><br/>Resilience analysis consists in defining measures and strategies to reduce the magnitude and duration of critical infrastructure service disruptions.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Consequence</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">A <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Consequence</span> is the <i><span style="color: #003478;">"effect of an event, incident, or occurrence. It reflects the level, duration, and nature of the loss resulting from the incidents"</span></i><a href="https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/dhs-risk-lexicon-2010_0.pdf" target="[object Object]"><span style="color: #003478;"> (DHS, 2010).</span></a>Consequences can be grouped in four categories: public health and safety, governance and mission, economic, and psychological consequences.<br/><br/>Analyzing consequences is very important because consequence levels guide the definition of the infrastructure assets criticality and make it possible to prioritize protection and resilience strategies.</td>
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<p>Risk analysis takes into account these four elements: the hazards to which an asset is susceptible, the vulnerability of the asset to the hazard, the resilience of the asset to face an incident (i.e., degradation of the asset), and the undesired consequences potentially generated by the incident. The risk components and their analysis can be represented as a Risk Bowtie.</p>
<p><center><a href="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/e7ab8f4975bcb282e4616201d43fd6a7/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod1_Risk-Bowtie.jpg" target="_blank"><img width="60%" src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/e7ab8f4975bcb282e4616201d43fd6a7/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod1_Risk-Bowtie.jpg" alt="Get Alt Text" /></a><br/><span style="color: #003478;">Risk Bowtie (Petit, 2021)</span></center></p>
<p style="color: #003478;"> Click on the figure to enlarge it.</p>
<p>The risk bowtie represents how hazards, vulnerability, resilience, and consequences fit together over time to define a risk logical flow. The interactions among the components of risk are complex — and are made more so when analysts and owners/operators consider the transfer of risk among assets in the case of a threat by an intelligent adversary.</p>
<p>Risk analysis is the process one goes through in order to develop a risk assessment. Risk assessment is the tangible outcome of the risk analysis process. Finally, risk management defines the roles and responsibilities of people who need to make decisions based upon the results of the risk analysis process. The objective of a risk management framework, which includes analysis and assessment, is therefore to inform decision-making.</p>
<p style="color: #003478;">Module 1 provides more information on general concepts to conduct a risk analysis.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 20pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Critical Infrastructure Fundamentals <br/>Module 2 Summary</p>
<p>There is no universal definition of critical infrastructure. Definitions of critical infrastructure vary by countries that have developed specific policies for their protection. However, all definitions present common elements:</p>
<ul>
<li>they are physical or virtual organizations, facilities, processes, or assets;</li>
<li>they support the population's needs and the functioning of societies;</li>
<li>their disruption will lead to undesired consequences.</li>
</ul>
<p>The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) offers a definition that summarizes these key elements: <i><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;"> Critical Infrastructure are “the physical structures, facilities, networks and other assets which provide services that are essential to the social and economic functioning of a community or society."</span></i><a href="https://www.undrr.org/terminology/critical-infrastructure" target="_blank"> (UNDRR, 2021)</a></p>
<p>Althought the types of Sectors that constitute a critical infrastructure also vary among countries, some sectors are relatively common: communications and information technology, energy networks, finance, food and agriculture, health, transportation systems, and water and wastewater systems. These sectors mostly represent the facilities and systems that provide the resources to fulfil human basic needs (i.e., physiological needs). The most common sectors of all taxonomies are the energy sector and other utility systems, which are also named lifeline sectors.</p>
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<td style="background-color:#003478; color: white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Calibri'; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;" colspan="2"><b>Lifeline Infrastructure</b></td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Energy Systems</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Critical energy infrastructure are comprised of assets that relate to producing or supplying energy. This includes assets and facilities that produce or supply electricity, petroleum, natural gas, ethanol, biodiesel, hydrogen, coal, and renewable energies.<br/><br/>Energy facilities are subjects to shutdown or failure from several natural hazards (e.g., wildfires, floods, high winds, storms) and manmade hazards (e.g., equipment and industrial failures, dependencies, and intentional physical and cyber threats).<br/><br/>Vulnerabilities relate to several factors such as the difficulty to protect extensive geographic areas, the increase of remote control, or the long replacement manufacture and delivery lead times. Energy systems also produce and use hazardous products and chemicals that may be explosive or toxic.<br/><br/>System redundancy and resilience limits the potential consequences of disruption to energy infrastructure. However, in case of failure, power outages mays cascade across all critical infrastructure systems. Uncontrolled release of natural gas or petroleum products can result in injuries and fatalities as well as property and environmental damage.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Communications and Information Technology</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Communications and Information technology are strongly interconnected with the integration of telecommunications (e.g., telephone lines and wireless signals) and computers. In recent years, the term information and communication technology (ICT) has started being used as an extensional term for information technology (IT) to represent the convergence and integration of the modes of communications with the use of cyber technologies. The section presents a general overview of the communications and information technology sectors. Communications and IT are especially important to support critical infrastructure operations and security controls. They constitute the foundations of industrial control systems (ICS) and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems.<br/><br/>Communications and IT systems are subjects to shutdown or failure from extreme meteorological events such as flooding, storms, lightnings, or electromagnetic pulses. Manmade hazards are also important due mainly to cyber threats that may range from theft of business data to intrusions into critical control systems and disruption of system operations.<br/><br/>Vulnerabilities relate to several factors such as the difficulty to protect numerous assets distributed over extensive geographic areas, the combination of information and operation technologies, inadequate training, and outdated equipment and procedures.<br/><br/>Damage to, or failure of communications and IT assets would have a large effect on the possibility to transmit and receive data, the ability to share information, and ultimately the capacity to operate critical infrastructure systems and to implement and coordinate business continuity and emergency management strategies.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Transportation Systems</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The Transportation Sector is comprised of a multitude of networks of transportation systems. Systems vary in size and complexity, but all modes of transportation have one element in common - they have defined origin and destination points, and the assets that comprise the system of interest exist for the sole purpose of facilitating the flow of either people or products.<br/><br/>Transportation systems are subjects to shutdown or failure from almost any type of natural hazards and especially those that would lead to extreme weather conditions (e.g., high winds, heavy snow and icy conditions, volcano ashes for air transportation). Manmade hazards are also important due to, among other things, large people mass gathering and intensive use of electronic systems.<br/><br/>Vulnerabilities relate to several factors such as the difficulty to protect numerous assets distributed over extensive geographic areas, the combination of information and operation technologies, or the transportation of hazardous products and chemicals.<br/><br/>Damage to, or failure of transportation assets can lead to travel disruptions, business losses, disruption of other infrastructure, loss of life, and/or psychological trauma.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Water and Wastewater Systems</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The Water and Wastewater Sector consists of drinking water and wastewater utilities and provides services to all critical infrastructure systems. The Drinking Water System is made up of multiple parts including water sources, conveyance to bring water from a remote source to the treatment plant, water treatment plant, storage, distribution, and control and monitoring assets. The Wastewater System is comprised of wastewater collection systems, wastewater raw influent storage, wastewater treatment plant, storage, treated wastewater discharge system, treated wastewater monitoring system, and wastewater control center. <br/><br/>Several types of natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes) may affect water infrastructure systems depending on their geographic locations. However, drought and flood are the most important to consider. They can indeed have a direct harmful impact (i.e., failure, shutdown) on water infrastructure systems that are usually located near surface water bodies but also on the availability and characteristics of raw water used by these systems. Manmade hazards are also important due mainly to cyber threats that may range from theft of business data to intrusions into critical control systems and disruption of system operations.<br/><br/>Vulnerabilities relate to the characteristics of water and wastewater systems, which are located in the vicinity of water bodies that may also be used for recreational purposes. Water and wastewater systems have been built and improved over time and can include aged infrastructures and outdated IT and OT processes. Furthermore, they also store large quantities of potentially toxic chemicals onsite, which may lead to additional vulnerabilities.<br/><br/>Public drinking water and wastewater services are essential to public health and sanitation and a loss of such services could have devastating impacts on the economy, health, emergency services, and other sectors within an affected area. Aging pipes and extreme weather have helped contribute to water main bursts or other types of accidents that can lead to a disruption of daily life.</td>
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<p style="font-size: 13pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important; text-decoration: underline;">Critical Functions</p>
<p>The notion of critical functions appeared relatively recently with the emergence of the concept of resilience and the observation that critical infrastructures constitute a system-of-systems that supports societal functions. Like critical infrastructure systems, there is no universal definition of critical infrastructure. However, the notion of critical functions relate to the need for business continuity and continuity of operations of various critical infrastructure systems facing evolving threat landscapes. Instead of focusing primarily on physical assets and facilities, the identification of critical functions allows to:</p>
<ul>
<li>capture cross-cutting, cross-sector risks and associated dependences that may have cascading impacts within and across sectors.</li>
<li>more effectively capture risks to supply chain security and resilience.</li>
<li>more effectively assess major cybersecurity issues.</li>
</ul>
<p>Considering the critical infrastructure system-of-systems through a functional lens allows for a holistic and comprehensive risk analysis that integrate the inherent complexity of critical infrastructure systems and the evolution of the threats landscape.</p>
<p style="color: #003478;">Module 2 provides more information on critical infrastructure and critical functions.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 20pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Critical Infrastructure Dependencies<br/>Module 3 Summary</p>
<p>Critical Infrastructure are strongly interconnected and constitutes a <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">system-of-systems</span> where critical infrastructure interacts synergistically to fulfill their missions and maintain their operations. </p>
<center><a href="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/29906d67743b4a6f8509b172b8f2d3ce/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod3_Img4_Sm.png" class="modal-content" target="_blank"><img alt="Full screen image" src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/29906d67743b4a6f8509b172b8f2d3ce/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod3_Img4_Sm.png" alt="Get Alt Text"></a><br /><span style="color: #003478;">Critical Energy Networks Dependencies Overview <a href="https://www.hybridcoe.fi/publications/assessing-energy-dependency-in-the-age-of-hybrid-threats/" target="[object Object]"> (Verner, Grigas, and Petit, 2019)</a></span></center><br/>
<p>Infrastructure dependencies and interdependencies are risk multipliers. They increase the risk complexity and can lead to systemic risks. An impact to a critical infrastructure asset can create a <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">“single point of failure”</span> that is often hidden deep within these interconnected systems—can result in significant economic and physical damage on a city-wide, regional, national, or international scale.</p>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Dependencies</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;"><center><a href="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/6b4e7c60ea3679c2f2df295845c690f0/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod3_Img1.png" class="modal-content" target="_blank"><img width="75%" alt="Full screen image" src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/6b4e7c60ea3679c2f2df295845c690f0/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod3_Img1.png" alt="Get Alt Text"></a><br/><span style="color: #003478;">Infrastructure Dependency<a href="https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2015/06/111906.pdf" target="[object Object]"> (Petit, <i>et al.</i>, 2015)</a></span></center><br/> A dependency is a unidirectional relationship between two assets (e.g., critical infrastructure, firm, organization, or facility) where the operations of Asset A affect the operations of Asset B.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Interdependencies</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;"><center><a href="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/c4e2584f1d8742c377294670eac32606/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod3_Img2.png" class="modal-content" target="_blank"><img width="75%" alt="Full screen image" src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/c4e2584f1d8742c377294670eac32606/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod3_Img2.png" alt="Get Alt Text"></a><br/><span style="color: #003478;">Infrastructure Interdependency<a href="https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2015/06/111906.pdf" target="[object Object]"> (Petit, <i>et al.</i>, 2015)</a></span></center><br/> An interdependency is a bidirectional relationship between two assets where the operations of Asset A affect the operations of Asset B, and the operations of Asset B then affect the operations of Asset A.</td>
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<p>Critical infrastructure systems are inherently complex because they span jurisdictions and large geographic areas, and are functionally organized into different levels (i.e., facility, sub-segment, segment, sub-sector, and sector). Dependency characteristics vary according to the level of assessment (i.e., facility, network, system, community, region, state, country). Several dimensions, presented in the figure below, aid in characterizing and understanding critical infrastructure dependencies.</p>
<center><a href="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/faab17690daee40967fc0edd40221427/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod3_img6.png" class="modal-content" target="_blank"><img width="75%" alt="Full screen image" src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/faab17690daee40967fc0edd40221427/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod3_img6.png" alt="Get Alt Text"></a><br/><span style="color: #003478;">Infrastructure Dependency Dimensions<a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/969131" target="[object Object]"> (Rinaldi, Peerenboom, and Kelly, 2001)</a></span></center> <br/>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Dependency Categories</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">An infrastructure asset is in constant interactions with its environment. It requires resources (i.e., goods or services) that other critical infrastructure assets supply to operate, transforms them, and then provide finished products (i.e., resources) to other critical infrastructure assets.<br/><br/><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Upstream dependencies</span> characterize the asset inputs—they characterize the products or services provided to one infrastructure asset by another external infrastructure asset that are necessary to support its operations and functions.<br/><br/><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Internal dependencies</span> characterize the interactions (i.e., resources mobility) among internal operations, functions, and missions of the infrastructure.<br/><br/><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Downstream dependencies</span> characterize the asset outputs—they characterize the consequences to a critical infrastructure’s consumers or recipients from the degradation of the resources that a critical infrastructure asset provides.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Dependency Classes</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The four dependency classes characterize the functional organization of critical infrastructure systems: geographic dependencies relate to the location of infrastructure assets, physical dependencies relate to connections through civil infrastructures (e.g., pipes, lines), cyber dependencies relate to industrial control systems (ICS) and SCADA, and logical dependencies relate to human-centric connections.<br/><br/>A <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">geographic dependency</span> corresponds to the co-location of infrastructure assets. During usual and normal operations, they are not connected. However, the malfunction of one asset can affect the operations of collocated assets.<br/><br/>A <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">physical dependency</span> corresponds to the transfer of resources through physical connections.<br/><br/>A <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">cyber dependency</span> corresponds to the transfer of data and electronic information.<br/><br/><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Logical dependencies</span> occur at both operational and strategic levels. They relate to management decisions that affect an asset’s functioning.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Types of Failure</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">There are three types of failure.<br/><br/><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Common cause failures</span> occur when two or more infrastructure networks are disrupted at the same time: components within each network fail because of some common cause. .<br/><br/><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Cascading failures</span>, also known as <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">domino effect</span>, occur when a disruption in one infrastructure causes the failure of a component in a second infrastructure, which subsequently causes a disruption in the second infrastructure.<br/><br/><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Escalating failures</span>, also known as <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">snowball effect</span>, occur when an existing disruption in one infrastructure exacerbates an independent disruption of a second infrastructure, generally in the form of increasing the severity or the time for recovery or restoration of the second failure.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Infrastructure State of Operation</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The state of operation of an infrastructure can be thought of as a continuum that exhibits different behaviors during normal operating conditions, during times of severe stress or disruption, or during times when repair and restoration activities are under way. In addition, the state of operation of a unit, subsystem, or system at the time of a failure will affect the extent and duration of any disruption or degradation in the services of an infrastructure. </td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Operating Environment</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Infrastructures operate in an environment described not only by their individual inputs, outputs, and states, but also by the characteristics of other infrastructures and certain general concerns. The infrastructure environment is the framework in which the owners and operators establish goals and objectives, construct value systems for defining and viewing their businesses, model and analyze their operations, and make decisions that affect infrastructure architectures and operations. </td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Coupling and Response Behavior</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The primary coupling characteristics are the degree of coupling (tightness or looseness), the coupling order, and the linearity or complexity of the interactions. The coupling characteristics and nature of the interacting agents in turn directly influence whether the infrastructures are adaptive or inflexible when disrupted or stressed. The coupling order indicates whether two infrastructures are directly connected to one another or indirectly coupled through one or more intervening infrastructures. </td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Infrastructure Characteristics</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Infrastructure assets are characterized by spatial and temporal scales, operational factors, and organizational considerations.</td>
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<p>When studying infrastructure dependencies, it is not necessary to address all dependency dimensions. It is however important to span <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">tailor the dependency analysis</span> to the risk analysis objectives and to <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">build a system-of-systems perspective.</span> <br/><br/>Building a system-of-systems perspective is based on the assumption that a critical asset or facility can be considered as part of a broader system of infrastructure, and higher-level constructs (e.g., a community or a region) are constituted of multiple systems. As such, a community or a region operates as a system of systems. <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Combining top-down and bottom-up approaches</span> provides high levels of detail regarding the operation of both the overall system and the assets comprising the systems. This information can, in turn, help determine where to conduct more detailed assessments on only the most critical assets and system components, and ultimately help establish the appropriate scope of a dependency analysis.</p>
<p>Infrastructure Dependencies Critical Thinking starts with foundational questions that can help to discern what is known, identify knowledge gaps, and prioritize actions for filling those knowledge gaps, and developing a community or regional perspective on infrastructure dependencies.<br /><br /> These questions are questions commonly used in risk analysis and communication contexts: <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">What, Why, Who, Where, When, and How </span>(<span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">the 5W1H approach</span>). <br /><br /> This simple approach helps to build a basis for targeted data-gathering, and to start outlining the scope of whichever assessment methodology is best suited to the dependency issues that risk analysis is trying to address.</p>
<p style="color: #003478;">Module 3 provides more information on critical infrastructure dependencies and dependency analysis.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 20pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Information Security and Cybersecurity <br/>Module 4 Summary</p>
<p>Increasing use of information technology to operate critical infrastructure systems create new vulnerabilities that must be addressed. Cyber attacks can be complex. They encompass unwelcome attempts to steal, expose, alter, disable or destroy information through unauthorized access to computer systems.</p>
<p> An information security program seeks to evaluate different risks to information systems and are used to evaluate system performance based on three foundational concepts.</p>
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<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;"><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Integrity</span> characterizes the protection of system information or processes from intentional or accidental modification. Integrity focuses on the message contents and is prone to attacks such as tampering or hash collisions which may subvert common measures to check message contents like hashing.</td>
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<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;"><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Confidentiality</span> prevents the disclosure of sensitive information from unauthorized people, resources, and processes. Confidentiality focuses on protecting message contents from unwanted viewing and is often preserved by using encryption.</td>
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<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;"><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Availability</span> characterizes the passurance that systems and data are accessible by authorized users when needed. Common attacks against availability include techniques trying to deplete or eliminate system resources, such as Denial of Service (DoS), Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS), or amplification attacks.</td>
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<p style="font-size: 13pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important; text-decoration: underline;">Information Security Model</p>
<p>Information Security Model typically includes information security properties, infornation states, and security measures. The interplay between these three elements can be presented as a cube, known as the McCumber Cube.</p>
<p><center><a href="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/911cd34e048d7d08b0c9da15cc6b3364/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod4_McCumber-Cubev2.jpg" target="_blank"><img width="50%" src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/911cd34e048d7d08b0c9da15cc6b3364/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod4_McCumber-Cubev2.jpg" alt="Get Alt Text" /></a><br/><span style="color: #003478;">McCumber Cube<a href="http://www.sis.pitt.edu/jjoshi/courses/IS2150/Fall11/nstissi_4011.pdf" target="[object Object]"> (NSTISS, 1994)</a></span></center></p>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Information Security Properties</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Information security properties consider the three characteristics of information security (i.e., <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">confidentiality, integrity, and availability</span>). These provide one of the three facets of the McCumber cube and allow to evaluate a security posture by including heuristics for their comparison.<br/><br/> Remember that confidentiality protects the data from unwanted access; Integrity preserves message contents all the way from sender to receiver; and availability ensures necessary system resources are accessible when needed.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Information States</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The three information states (i.e., processing, storage, and transmission) can also be described as data in process, data at rest, and data in motion.<br/><br/><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;"> Data in process (processing)</span> includes information that is currently being processed by a system such as loaded into RAM. Although that portion of the stat state may be short-lived, the ability of RAM to retain data until overwritten or power loss makes it a target for memory scraping attacks.<br/><br/> <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Data at rest (storage)</span> pertains to data stored on a hard disk or solid state drive. Once written to storage, the data persists until overwritten.<br/><br/> <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Data in transit (transmission)</span> refers to information being sent over a medium. When communicating across networks this information is typically encrypted before being sent over the public Internet in an attempt to safeguard it from espionage.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Security Measures</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Security measures provide concrete ways of safeguarding the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of data across its three modalities (i.e., data in process, data at rest, and data in motion).<br/><br/><span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;"> Policies and procedures</span> refer to organization-based rules and guidance that dictate how data is labeled, used, and protected.<br/><br/> <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Technology</span> may include techniques, such as encryption, or software that assists in safeguarding data or data loss, such as a data loss prevention (DLP) device. DLP devices can search for anomalies in data transmission or words and phrases to identify potential loss of sensitive information.<br/><br/> Finally, <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">education, training, and awareness</span> provides security guidance and context for personnel that may be responsible for data during any part of its lifecycle.</td>
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<p style="font-size: 13pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important; text-decoration: underline;">Anatomy of a Cyberattack</p>
<p>The anatomy of a cyberattack can be represented as an attack chain, also known as the cyber kill chain <a href="https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/cybercrime/global-programme-cybercrime.html" target="[object Object]"> (Lockheed Martin, 2021)</a>. The figure below shows the five main stages characterizing an attacker’s methodology.</p>
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<b>Anatomy of A Cyberattack</b></span></center></p>
<p>The stages depicted in this flow chart loosely define how an attacker would interact with a system. The flow is depicted as linear; however, in reality an attacker may need to revisit specific parts of the attack in order to progress through this attack flow.</p>
<p style="font-size: 13pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important; text-decoration: underline;">Cyber Risk Management Model</p>
<p>A basic cyber risk management model is organized in five steps.</p>
<p><center><img width="50%" src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/33bcf324089ad1262d6d5a6736eb38bc/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod4_Cyber-Risk-Management.jpg" alt="Get Alt Text"/><br/><span style="color: #003478;">
<b>Cyber Risk Management Model</b></span></center></p>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Asset Identification</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Asset Identification requires in-depth understanding of the different components of the system being analyzed and may require input from many different stakeholders depending on the size of the organization.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Threat Assessment</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Threat assessment aims to identify the likelihood of occurrence of possible threats and vulnerabilities.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Impact Determination and Quantification</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Impact Determination and Quantification aims to identify potential threats and to select appropriate risk calculation approaches. The selection of risk calculation (i.e., quantitative vs qualitative) that will be applied is typically defined according to the impact categories (i.e., tangible vs intangible).</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Control Design and Evaluation</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Control Design and Evaluation aims to design and implement countermeasures (i.e., controls, safeguards) to mitigate these risks and reduce consequences to an acceptable level.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Residual Risks Management</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Residual Risks Management aims to consider risks that remain after implementing controls by developing action plans or inclusion within incident response.</td>
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<p style="color: #003478;">Module 4 provides more information on information security and cybersecurity.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 20pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">Risk Analysis, Emerging Threats, and Risk Management<br/>Module 5 Summary</p>
<p>The overall success of the national infrastructure protection mission depends on strong risk analysis capabilities and the development of analysis products that effectively inform decision makers. To accurately analyze risks and prepare high-quality products, analysts need a consistent process.</p>
<p style="font-size: 13pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important; text-decoration: underline;">Risk Analysis Process</p>
<p>The risk analysis process consists in six phases.</p>
<table>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Planning</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The first step consists in developing a plan. Such a plan serves as a roadmap, maximizing the efficiency, quality, and utility of the overall analysis. The plan should define the goal, audience, and scope of the risk analysis. Carefully review the available information that will support the analysis and identify information gaps.</td>
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<tr>
<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Analyzing</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The second step consists in integrating threat, vulnerability, resilience, and consequence information to produce a defensible evaluation of the risks to the particular asset, system, or network.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Producing</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The third step consists in developing products to communicate effectively the analysis results.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Reviewing</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The fourth step consists in conducting internal and independent reviews to ensure the quality and uniformity of the analysis products that will be consistent with tradecraft standards.</td>
</tr>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Presenting</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The fifth step consists in modifying and revising analysis products to address changes from the reviewers and finalize the products for delivery to the audience or decision makers.</td>
</tr>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Assessing</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The sixth step consists in establishing mechanisms for receiving feedback on the effectiveness of analysis products to establish a baseline for improvement and provide the basis for building long-term confidence with the decision makers.</td>
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<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Assessing</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The sixth step consists in establishing mechanisms for receiving feedback on the effectiveness of analysis products to establish a baseline for improvement and provide the basis for building long-term confidence with the decision makers.</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p style="font-size: 13pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important; text-decoration: underline;">Risk Analysis Standards</p>
<p> Analysis tradecraft standards are fundamental to conducting risk analysis and developing associated risk analytic products. Strict adherence to these tradecraft standards allows analysts to think critically, meet partner expectations, and communicate key messages. The consistent use of these standards will also help ensure that risk analyses are consistent, defensible, and repeatable. There are 8 Analytic Tradecraft Standards:</p>
<ol>
<li>Properly describe quality and reliability of information sources</li>
<li>Properly caveat and expresses uncertainties or confidence in analytic judgments</li>
<li>Properly distinguish between underlying intelligence and analysts’ assumptions and judgments</li>
<li>Incorporate alternative analyses where appropriate</li>
<li>Demonstrate relevance to infrastructure protection and national security</li>
<li>Use logical argumentation</li>
<li>Exhibit consistency of analysis over time or highlights changes</li>
<li>Incorporate effective visual information where appropriate</li>
</ol>
<p style="font-size: 13pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important; text-decoration: underline;">Emerging Threats and Systemic Risks</p>
<p>One of the main challenges in risk analysis is to accurately identify hazards, vulnerabilities, resilience features, and consequences, in order to characterize the risk profile. This requires knowing not only your infrastructure but also its operating environment. The identification of risks is made difficult due to the need to consider compound layers of complexity. The objective of the risk analysis is therefore to deepen the knowledge and expertise to increase the understanding of potential risks and to aniticpate the unexpected (e.g., black swan event). This requires to consider emerging hazards and systemic risks.</p>
<p><center><img width="40%" src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/f5f697c2ab5f35a872b7aedc60ec381c/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod5_Risk-Iceberg.jpg" alt="Get Alt Text" /></center></p>
<p>An <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">emerging hazard</span> is an hazard that may be newly recognized; may have been recognized before but may potentially affect a new or different population, industry, or geographic area than previously affected; or may be an existing hazard that has developed new attributes. When considering critical energy infrastructure, emerging hazards mainly relate to the emergence of new technologies or the changes of their operating environment. They include for example cyberthreats, climate changes, infrastructure interdependencies, and new diseases and pandemics. The figure below illustrates the effect of climate changes.</p>
<p>A <span style="color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important;">systemic risk</span> is the risk that an event or events will substantially disrupt one or more infrastructure system, resulting in significant adverse effects on the overall environment. For example, systemic disruptions could be triggered or exacerbated by the failure of a financial institution that is disproportionately large and interconnected with other firms and industries, or by a major external event (such as a pandemic or terror attack) that exhausts short-term market liquidity.</p>
<p>Identifying emerging hazards is particularly important in the context of strategic risk management. By identifying potential hazard trends, critical energy infrastructure can identify potential shifts in the hazards landscape and develop systemic risk analysis approaches to inform protection and resilience enhancement strategies. This requires developing a critical thinking mindset.</p>
<p style="font-size: 13pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important; text-decoration: underline;">Critical Thinking</p>
<p>Risk analysis applied to critical energy infrastructure requires to consider several elements from the basic risk components (i.e., hazards, vulnerability, resilience, and consequences) to the critical infrastructure system-of-systems. Conducting risk analysis is inherently complex for integrating not only protection and resilience features but also physical, cyber, geographic, and logical considerations. This complexity is exacerbated by the emergence of new and sometimes hazards unexperienced before (e.g., hybrid threats and climate change) and the resulting changes occurring in the hazard landscape.</p>
<p> It is important to establish a process that is objective, consistent, and defensible enough to stand up to scrutiny and that it is repeatable enough to pass that information and methodology to other analysts and decision makers that they would be able to come up with the same results and conclusions. </p>
<p style="font-size: 13pt !important; color: #003478; font-weight: bold !important; text-decoration: underline;">Risk Management Cycle</p>
<p>Risk analysis is the foundation of risk assessment and management processes. Results of the risk analysis informs the risk assessment, which helps identifying and categorizing the risks. Finally, risk management involves the identification, analysis, evaluation, and prioritization of potential risks, and the definition of resilience and protection enhancement strategies.</p>
<p>The risk management cycle provides a common, interoperable, and systemic approaches to risk management. It promotes comparability and a shared understanding of information and analysis in the decision process. The implementation of the risk management cycle facilitates a more structures and informed decision-making. The figure below shows the seven phases of the risk management cycle.</p>
<p><center><a href="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/8eeadda2b457830ec097a386648206ae/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod5_Risk-Management-Cycle.jpg" target="_blank"><img width="60%" src="//d24jp206mxeyfm.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/8eeadda2b457830ec097a386648206ae/asset-v1:OSCE+CriticalEnergyNetworks101+2021+type@asset+block/Mod5_Risk-Management-Cycle.jpg" alt="Get Alt Text" /></a><br/><span style="color: #003478;"><b>Risk Management Cycle</b></span></center></p>
<table>
<tr>
<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Define the Context</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The first stage establishes the scope of the risk analysis and assessment and defines the goals and objectives.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Identify Potential Risk</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The second stage aims to develop a comprehensive and tailored list of future events which could be uncertain, but are likely to have an impact (either positively or negatively) on the achievement of the objectives.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Analyze and Assess Risk</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The third stage aims to carry out the analysis based on the risks (i.e., hazards, vulnerabilities, resilience measures, and consequences) identified during the previous stage. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Develop Alternatives</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The fourth stage aims to aims to determine the tolerability of each risk and to define which risks need treatment and their relative priority. </td>
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<tr>
<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Decide and Implement Alternatives</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The fifth stage is the real first stage of management during which leadership will review the risk analysis products and select alternatives that will be implemented. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Evaluate and Monitor</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">The sixth stage uses effectiveness criteria to report performance and results. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color:rgba(0,136,198,.30); border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:50px; vertical-align: middle; text-align:center;"><b>Risk Communication</b></td>
<td style="background-color:white; border: 1px solid black; padding: 15px; width:300px;">Communication and consultation is an essential attribute of good risk management. Risk management cannot be done in isolation and is fundamentally communicative and consultative.</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>Risk management is an iterative process and it is important to assess the outcomes to feed back into the first phase of the risk management cycle.</p>
<p style="color: #003478;">Module 5 provides more information on emerging threats and risk management.</p>
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